Yes, according to an article in City Business. Don’t get too excited. One thing that being a data geek has taught me is that you can make numbers say almost anything you want them to.
According to the article, there was an increase of 20.1% in home sale prices in Algiers from October to November and an increase of 5.4% on the West Bank of Jefferson Parish. Sounds like great news.
But, I have a couple of problems with this report.
- Agents notoriously don’t change the status in the MLS timely, so the actual average sale price has changed (dropped) due to additional closed sales being added to the database. Pulling data before all of the sales are recorded is a lesson I’ve learned the hard way and the reason that I don’t put out market reports before the 15th of the month.
- One month of increased sale prices is not a good indicator of how the overall market is actually performing. We track market changes over long periods of time to find trends. One month is not a trend.
- All of Algiers is being counted together, when the markets in Algiers Point, the 70131 zip code and English Turn are all different.
- All of West Jefferson is being lumped into one category/number, when each individual community is experiencing different results. The reality for Harvey is completely different than the reality for Terrytown.
If prices are really climbing, we will begin to see a gradual increase, coupled with a decrease in the inventory for buyers to choose from. I’m not the voice of gloom and doom, but I don’t want anyone to get all excited about a reported increase in West Bank selling prices and think that they can throw their house on the market and get 20% more than they thought they could last month.
Believe me, if that happens, we will be shouting it from the rooftops.
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It is great to hear of home prices increasing I hope it continues for all areas. This is a great indicator for the Real Estate Market maybe the market is starting to recover.
I think it means the low end of the market is falling as the buyers are being shut out of the market. Thus leaving only the medium end of the market selling. Among the medium segemnt only the premium segment of the market is selling. Just my 2 cents. How about this rain.
Pat, in my opinion, it's just a blip on the radar, not a trend. Looking at one month's average sale prices, when very few homes are selling, is not a good market indicator.
Eric, you may have a point about the bottom end of the market. It's harder to get those folks qualified and if the potential FHA changes go into effect, then we are really going to be hard pressed to move those entry level homes.
Good for you Lisa. Knowing your market and understanding the data is critical when communicating with consumers.
Of course consumers generally get national stats which are virtually useless when considering buying or selling a home.
That's good for them....I too think it's a "blurp on the radar" We'll have to wait and see won't we.
Patricia/Seacoast NH
That's good for them....I too think it's a "blurp on the radar" We'll have to wait and see won't we.
Patricia/Seacoast NH
Lenn, I agree. National stats mean zilch to me in relation to my little universe.
Lenn, it all comes back to real estate being local, right down to the neighborhood level. I can't stand it when these kind of reports come out with misinformation.
Patricia, I work hard on monthly market reports at the community level so we can watch the market for changes, even slight ones. If I thought this report was accurate I would be jumping up and down.
The problem with reports like this is that if you give sellers an inch they will take a mile. Sadly the likes of you and I do not have the exposure to get the right numbers in front of the masses. Sellers, please calm down increases when we get them will be slow and gradual.
Lisa, WHEN it happens, shout Loudly....I want to hear you in New York!!
Lisa no matter how one slices it, this isn't the same housing market we had three or four years ago. I wonder if we will ever see that again in our lifetime?
Well it looks like some good news is coming sooner or later. I am surprised that sold data is so slow. In Austin, MLS requires info be added in 48 hours or there is a stiff penalty.
One other thing, GO SAINTS!
Corinne, that won't stop me from trying!
Carole, that's a deal :)
John, I hope we don't. It was too crazy, too fast, and too many people are now nursing a hangover from that wild party.
Russell, I'm not surprised at all. The only thing is, I can't tell (after the fact) when a listing was updated, so I don't know who to report.
Lisa - Articles like the one you referenced really bother me because you can't lump all the stats in one basket. The consumer needs to work with an agent who knows what's happening in their market not just town to town but as you stated from neighborhood to neighborhood for the most accurate information.
Donna, exactly! These reports just mean more work for listing agents trying to show a seller that, no, it's not true for their neighborhood.
I'm tracking a few different areas in my market and it is interesting to see the differences at the different price points, too...
Lisa, Congrats on the feature! And you are so right about making the numbers show what you want them to show. It is much better to remain reality based. Otherwise it's like you said, people will think they can make more money again - when in truth it isn't so.
Lane, I'm waiting on year end before I jump into price points. I'll be mumbling numbers in my sleep in January :)
Susan, that's why I track my numbers different ways...monthly, yearly, over a 5 year cycle and each one is broken down by zip code. It still doesn't tell someone in a particular neighborhood what their house is worth. Only someone who knows the area and the comps can make an educated guess at that.
All growth will start with a little increase . I agree lets see if it can be sustained over a few months.
Lisa - well I have the same perspective, and I am always dubious of media reports like this. And as you say, 1 month may not me diddly.But it could be good news that will continue. I watch the stats in a bunch of markets here and things bounce around every month depending on the sales that month. You really can;t say too much without watching for some time. That's why folks need to work with agents like you who DO have their hands and eyes on the local market.
Jeff
Lisa, I agree about media reporting. I always wonder just "where" there information comes from. I wanted to stop by to check any market reports you were sharing. ;-)
The data in the report was pretty darn accurate, but it was touting the increase from October to November...statistically a very small sample and not a true picture of the overall market.
Teri, I'm working on them now :)